Roberts said that their preliminary results are promising. The experimental maps have been 90 percent accurate in predicting the presence of mosquitoes in an area when the scientists know what they are looking for. With about three more years of research, they will be ready to apply these maps. There are still a few kinks they have to work out. No one knows, for instance, specifically where the malaria-carrying Anopheles darlingii mosquitoes breed. More tests need to be run to determine the exact correlation between mosquito numbers and malaria outbreaks.
 

The maps should be useful by themselves for warning the government of potential malaria outbreaks in newly-settled areas. Ultimately, the scientists would like to combine this mapping system with the database of houses at risk. "We would match the map up with the national malaria database to determine how many malaria cases occurred over the last ten years. We would bring all of those elements of data together to begin targeting houses for spray," Roberts said.

The final product would resemble the slide of the Belizian village Roberts displayed in his lab, except the homes identified within the database would be accompanied by highlighted areas where the mosquitoes live. Not only would the government spray the highly infectious houses, but those closest to mosquitoes’ breeding habitats as well.

Within five years the scientists will have everything in place and begin field testing the model on individual villages. From what he's seen so far, Roberts is confident this method would work on a nationwide scale. By spraying roughly 3,600 houses, Belize could both reduce a majority of its malaria problem and amount of labor and insecticide used. The Belizian model could also be used as a blueprint for other countries in Central America, Asia and Africa. These nations would still have to determine the habitats of the mosquito species in their part of the world and build a database, but with Roberts's study as a model, they would know what to do to and how to make it work without much waste.

Roberts’ biggest worry now, however, isn't that his system will be useful. His biggest fear is programs underway by the United States and other wealthy nations to ban the use of DDT around the world. Roberts argued that there have been many studies comparing chemical irritants and repellents, and DDT is the only one that is known to repel mosquitoes throughout the evening. It is also the only one that most small governments can afford to buy in bulk.

References:

1. World Health Organization, 1999: Leading Infectious Killers, Removing Obstacles to Healthy Development.

2. World Health Organization, Division of Control of Tropical Diseases, 1998: Malaria Prevention and Control. (http://www.who.int/ctd/html/)

3. The Malaria Network, 1998: Fact Sheet 95. (http://www.malarianetwork.org/)

4. Shell, Ellen Ruppel, 1997: Resurgence of a Deadly Disease, The Atlantic Monthly. August, 1997, pp. 45-60

5. Rejmankova, E., K. O. Pope, D. R. Roberts, M. G. Lege, R. Andre, J. Greico, and Y. Alonzo, 1998: Characterization and Detection of Anopheles vestitipennis and Anopheles puntimacula Larval Habitats in Belize with Field Survey and SPOT Satellite Imagery, Journal of Vector Ecology, 23 (1) 1998, pp. 74-88.

6. Montgomery, Brian C., J. Grieco, P. M. Masuoka, D. Roberts, E. Rejmankova, Y. Alonzo, R. Andre, H. Lenares, N. Achee, K. Pope, and S. Franklin, 1998: A Remote Sensing Analysis of Vector Abundance and Malaria Riskk Associated with Selected Villages in Southern Belize, C.A..

7. Roberts, D. R., J. F. Paris, S. Manquin, R. E. Harbach, R. Woodruff, E. Rejmankova, J. Polanco, B. Wullschleger, and L. J. Legters, 1996: Predictions of Malaria Vector Distribution in Belize Based on Multispectral Satellite Data, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 54(3), 1996. pp. 304-308.

 Spotting Infection