Comments on: Q & A: The Midwest Drought with Richard Seager http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2012/08/22/q-a-the-midwest-drought-with-richard-seager/?src=earthmatters-rss Earth is an amazing planet, and the one that matters most to us. Let’s have a conversation about it. Wed, 01 May 2013 01:19:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Peter curia http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2012/08/22/q-a-the-midwest-drought-with-richard-seager/#comment-11115 Peter curia Thu, 30 Aug 2012 18:15:26 +0000 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/?p=2386#comment-11115 One may talk about ‘natural variability’ until the cows come home; however, climate change [global warming, if you prefer] that is mostly man caused, is happening and it will definitely exacerbate any ‘natural variability’!

]]> By: Phil Stevens http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2012/08/22/q-a-the-midwest-drought-with-richard-seager/#comment-11114 Phil Stevens Wed, 29 Aug 2012 07:07:08 +0000 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/?p=2386#comment-11114 Erl, natural variability could account for observations of 1- or even 2-sigma climate events against the background average, and drought in the continental US appears to be reflecting this.

But overall positive surface temperature anomaly has exhibited a massive increase in 3-sigma events in the last two decades, which means you can forget all about “natural variability” as the signal. Nice try.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2012/08/07/earth-indicator-3σ/

]]> By: Erl Happ http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2012/08/22/q-a-the-midwest-drought-with-richard-seager/#comment-11113 Erl Happ Tue, 28 Aug 2012 23:23:18 +0000 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/?p=2386#comment-11113 Its good to see that the role of natural variability is recognized in these comments by Richard Seager. One can not attribute any particular degree of change at the Earth’s surface to the effects of man unless the the change that is due to natural variability is quantified. So, we must understand the sources of that natural variability.

And where are we in that respect?

Are we agreed as to the origins of La Nina and El Nino, the origins of the Arctic and the Antarctic Oscillation and whether the change that we observe in the stratosphere is driven from the troposphere or the other way round?

No, we are not. So let’s not adopt the chicken little mode, ‘the sky is falling’ that is thrust upon us by the I.P.C.C.

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