March 3, 2008

IMPROVING WEATHER FORECASTS, ONE STORM – AND ONE PARTNER – AT A TIME

Thanks to an innovative collaboration, NASA earth science satellite measurements are improving short-term weather predictions.

Accurate weather forecasting is based on much more than observations of the sky and an educated guess. Meteorologists use complex weather models, experience and detailed descriptions of current weather conditions to make predictions. NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center located at the National Space Science Technology Center in Huntsville, Ala., aims to improve the accuracy of weather predictions by developing specialized tools which tap into streams of research information available from NASA instruments.

Celebrating five years of collaboration with the Huntsville National Weather Service Forecast Office this month, the team has shown successes which have attracted wider attention in the weather community. The most dramatic result of this local collaboration has been an increased understanding of the relationship between lightning activity and severe thunderstorms.

The majority of lightning during a storm flashes within clouds and doesn't strike the ground. A NASA Lightning Mapping Array in northern Alabama captures detailed information about lightning rates through a series of ground-based sensors, including the frequency of in-cloud lighting flashes. By looking at the in-cloud flash rates, NASA researchers discovered an increase in total lightning activity often indicates the development of strong storms. By incorporating flash rates along side Doppler radar and other indicators, local forecasters have been able to issue severe weather warnings to communities in a storm's path an average of three minutes earlier.

"This doesn't seem like a lot, but if you're at home watching TV and hear a warning, it's enough time to get your family into an interior room or basement," said Chris Darden, science operations officer for the Huntsville National Weather Service office. "We'd like to think it helps save lives and it definitely helps improve our ability to get better information to our customers."

Forecasters using SPoRT products in their decision support systems have seen improvements in understanding how certain weather systems will evolve. For example, through collaboration with SPoRT, partner weather service offices receive a series of data and products four times each day from a sensor called MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), which rides aboard both NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. MODIS images, while received less frequently than the current GOES satellites used operationally by all weather service offices, capture between 16 and 100 times more spatial detail. This higher resolution allows forecasters to visualize areas of fog and cloud boundaries that may lead to thunderstorm development later in the day. Moreover, because MODIS provides detailed radiation measurements and 36 frequencies of light ranging from visible to the infrared, the SPoRT team developed a tool forecasters can use to diagnose fog at night when visual observations are not available and it can be most dangerous for travelers and airlines.

"NASA's Earth science program is dedicated to advancing the use of global satellite measurements to improve human understanding of our home planet and improve operational services of benefit to the society," said Tsengdar Lee, manager of the scientific computing portfolio and the SPoRT program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "SPoRT is doing just this by harnessing NASA observations captured to study the long-term impacts of climate change and using this information to better predict short-term weather systems."

Because the National Weather Service is responsible for issuing all public weather forecasts in the United States, it is committed to working with research partners to improve its ability to forecast the weather. Gary Jedlovec, SPoRT principal investigator, attributes the success of the program to a commitment to working with local forecasters, understanding the day-to-day problems they tackle, and designing customized solutions.

"What we're doing now with SPoRT, transitioning research data into action at the local level, is good training, preparation and validation for how future measurements will be used nationally, said Jedlovec. "In a few years, the research we're doing here will have far reaching impacts across the country and even globally."

"It's just not a matter of handing off cool NASA visualizations and tools," said Darden "We assess local forecast needs and then work with SPoRT to come up with solutions."

Currently seven weather service offices partner with the SPoRT program and over the next few months the team will expand to work with a dozen offices. Going forward, SPoRT aims to help partners prepare for the next generation of weather satellites which will be launched by NASA and NOAA over the next 10 years. They will carry advanced sensors capable of producing higher-resolution images containing more information about the atmosphere and ground than today's satellites can provide.

For more information about SPoRT, please visit:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport/

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Contact:

Jennifer Morcone
Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala.
256-544-0034
Jennifer.J.Morcone@nasa.gov

This text is derived from:
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/news/releases/2008/08-025.html