Alternatively, the Floyd event could have a positive effect on North Carolina’s coastal ecosystem, says Luczkovich. The massive runoff could effectively flush out to sea the pollutants that have been accumulating in the Pamlico over the years.
 

"This could improve the long-term health of the Pamlico Sound," Luczkovich says. "When you put a lot of freshwater into the system, it could increase the flushing rate and, ultimately, have a rejuvenating effect."

On average, the Pamlico River has a flushing rate of 20 days. Following Floyd, the river's flushing rate increased to 4 days, or about 5 times the Pamlico's normal turnover rate. It is anyone’s guess at this point what the long-term impact will be on the Carolina Coast. Only time will tell which scenario will emerge—a fish kill disaster, or will there be a happy ending? Scientists, as well as fishermen, are watching closely.

"It’s crazy to try to answer that question now," Luczkovich states. "We don’t know what will happen and we won’t know until we get more data."

But, regardless of what happens this summer, both Luczkovich and Ward emphasize that we won’t really know Floyd’s long-term impact for at least a year and maybe several years.

Regarding reports in news media of the anticipated "massive fish kills," Luczkovich cautions, "It is irresponsible to report certain facts before we know them. [The news reports] show the danger of jumping to conclusions about a complex system that we’re still gathering data on."

Reference
Hackney, Courtney, Jude Grimley, Martin Posey, Troy Alphin, Jeff Hyland, 1998: "Sediment Contamination in North Carolina's Estuaries." Center for Marine Science Research, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Publication No. 198, 59 pages.

 The Dead Zone

Members of the Pamlico River Rapid Response Team continue to monitor the estuary's health. Parameters such as dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature, and salinity can provide early warning of fish kills and algal blooms. (Photograph courtesy Pamlico River Rapid Response Team)