Scientists use computer climate models to help them understand how temperature in different regions of the world may change as carbon dioxide increases. Learn more about these tools by viewing this movie.
Mathematical equations can describe many of the physical processes that influence climate on earth. See if you can describe how mathematical equations and computer models help scientists understand how climate may change in the future.
The oceans, atmosphere, land, sea ice, and even plants and animals all play a part in determining climate.
These parts of the climate system interact in complex ways.
For decades now, scientists have observed and measured these interactions. Often, an interaction between two components of the climate system can be described by a mathematical equation.
For example, a mathematical equation might describe the relationship between wind speed and evaporation over the ocean.
Another equation might describe the relationship between air temperature and sea ice formation.
For years, scientists have been proposing and refining equations that describe hundreds of links between various parts of the climate system.
In the last decade, with the help of super-fast computers, scientists have begun to combine these equations into complex computer programs, referred to as climate models.
Scientists can run the programs to obtain predictions about what climate might be like years and even decades from now.
One of the mathematical variables in climate models is atmospheric carbon dioxide. Scientists can enter different values for carbon dioxide in the model, and run the program to see how this affects other components of the model, such as rainfall or air temperature.
Some parts of the climate system, such as clouds and airborne particles, are difficult to represent using mathematical equations.
But clouds and particles have important effects on global climate.
As a result, current day computer models can only provide an estimation of how climate might change, given particular starting conditions.
In summary, computer climate models provide scientists with a useful method of estimating how the climate system may change in the future.