From measurements to climate models
With clouds, aerosols, and surface properties varying greatly over the Earth, and with our inability to model Earth's complex climate system, we need a hierarchy of measurements varying from laboratory studies of cloud particles and aerosol properties, through aircraft and surface-based field experiment measurements, to observations of the entire Earth from space. Only from space, however, can we observe the surface, aerosol, and cloud changes in anything approaching a complete set of conditions occurring in the climate system.

Ultimately, we are searching for a set of mathematical models that allow us to span the incredibly large range of space and time scales important to aerosols, water vapor, clouds, the land surface, and the oceans. These models must be capable of reproducing the variability shown in the data at both regional and global scales. They must be capable of reproducing El Niño, the Earth's diurnal and seasonal cycles, and the inter-annual variability in the climate system. The models must also be capable of reproducing the systematic changes in the radiative energy balance with changing aerosols, water vapor, clouds, and surface properties. Only then can we begin to trust the models to produce accurate global change predictions.

It should be noted that these are not the only tests such models must successfully pass, but they are a critical part of the story. Water and carbon cycles in the climate system are also critical. Moreover, the development, testing, and improvement of such models using global data sets will be an iterative process, with no assurance of success. The process will be a continual narrowing of the uncertainties.

The Earth's climate system, particularly its energy and water cycles, is complex and intricately interlinked. The discovery of these links, and the development of improved predictive computer models using these links, is at the heart of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) observations and science plan.

back: Atmospheric Aerosols: Fossil Fuels and Biomass Burning
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Why isn't Earth as hot as an oven?

Introduction

Clouds: A hot topic or are we made in the shade?

Surface Absorption and Reflection

Atmospheric Aerosols: Fossil Fuels and Biomass Burning

From Measurements to Climate Models

Related Data Sets:

Surface Temperature

Outgoing Longwave Radiation